Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Let The Media Focus On The Bad News

We'll show you the polls that they won't:

Rasmussen Reports (Sept. 7, 2004)

Kerry 47
Bush 47

Bush was up 4 in this daily tracking poll coming out of the convention, a lead that this poll shows has already dissipated.

American Research Group (Aug. 30-Sept 1)

Kerry 47
Bush 48

And last but not least:

The latest Zogby Interactive poll still shows Mr. Kerry well ahead, leading in 12 of the 16 battlegrounds in Zogby's twice-a-month polls. But Mr. Bush took the lead in two states -- Arkansas and Tennessee -- since the poll conducted a week before his convention. And there are other signs of strength for the president.

Here's how the numbers could play out on Election Day.

To analyze Zogby's results, we start by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battlegrounds poll will vote for the same political party that they did in the 2000 election. Thus, President Bush begins our calculations with 189 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry with 172. A candidate needs 70 electoral votes to win the White House. Then, we add in the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margin of error or the spread between the candidates. Mr. Kerry's 12 states control a total of 135 votes, while Mr. Bush's four have 42. If you add up the numbers, you find that Mr. Kerry would win the Electoral College 307-231.

I'm just sayin'.


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