Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Exit Polls Looking Good For Kerry...So Far

Slatehas released some updated exit poll data from the battleground states that look good for Kerry, although Ohio and Florida are turning out to be just as tight as expected:

Florida

Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio

Kerry 50
Bush 49

Pennsylvania

Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin

Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan

Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota

Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada

Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico

Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina

Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado

Kerry 46
Bush 53

These should be taken with a grain of salt, of course. For a reality check, here's Slate's Jack Shafer:

The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model.


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