Monday, August 22, 2005

Bush Approval Plummets

The right of course will downplay any bad poll numbers on Bush, saying what do polls matter, he won re-election. But if Bush's approval was up, you can be sure the numbers would be perfectly relevant (and by the same token, I most likely wouldn't be posting them, myself!) But the fact is something notable has happened in the newest American Research Group poll: after hovering just above 40% for most of the summer, Bush has plummeted to an approval rating of just 36% (38% among registered voters.)

I should say that, as Guru cautions, this poll should be taken with a grain of salt since it is significantly below any other recent poll's rating and ARG does tend to skew Democrat. It will be interesting to see if its findings are repeated in other polls in the coming weeks.

Some articles I read about Bush's approval ratings appear surprised by his dropping popularity considering his legislative victories this summer, what with CAFTA, the Highway bill and the Energy bill all signed. But the idea that legislative victories would actually translate to approval among the average voter is sadly naive it seems to me. Similarly, the pundit class may declare an economic recovery well under way but for those living the economy every day it sure doesn't feel like it. Especially with the gas prices what they are and when you add the growing unease about the war, it's a toxic mix. In other words, everything we here at Wild Democracy Ride have been saying for a year has finally reached the heartland.

So how bad is 36%? Let's put it this way: it's lower than Nixon's rating in the midst of Watergate.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

ARG, iirc, projected President Kerry being swept into office with 289 electoral votes in the 2004 election.

I think for many, that would be a case of 'nuff said. But I like baiting Todd's state of denial by pointing out the obvious.

Like whether it's more likely that people living in the "heartland of America" are sitting at home waiting to talk to pollsters ... or out on the lake in their bass boat.

When I worked for a political pollster (I think Todd may recall that I did) we NEVER polled in July or August because it was, well, a waste of our clients' money (and our time). Basically you end up getting a sample that's heavily skewed in favor of the Democrat's core demographic groups.

But Todd, if you want to keep doing the wishful thinking thing, go right ahead. I'm sure President Bush will be appropriately worried about how these numbers will impact his shot at reelection in 2008.

BTW, I'd like to thank you again for noting your own hypocrisy (and by the same token, I most likely wouldn't be posting them, myself!)

4:19 PM  

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