Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Daily Tracking Polls

Both Rasmussen Reports and Washington Post have daily tracking polls that we'll be posting, well, daily, along with interesting tidbits and trends. Keep in mind that both of these polls are conducted over the 3 days prior to the release date of the poll. (The previous day's poll is in parentheses.)

Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 3-5)

Kerry 47 (47)
Bush 47 (48)

On Oct. 1, Kerry was down 4, 45-49. A little analysis from Scott Rasmussen himself:

Last week's Presidential Debate is having a growing impact on the campaign. Initially, the result was simply to increase the enthusiasm and confidence of the Democratic base. While that was an important gain for Kerry, it did not alter the basic contours of the race. In recent days, however, there is evidence that some people are re-evaluating President Bush. Today's updates show declining ratings for the President's handling of Iraq and the economy. That is far more dangerous to the President than increased enthusiasm among Democrats. It should be of concern to the Bush campaign team and all those who support the President.

A week ago, before the first debate, John Kerry needed to quickly change the dynamic of the campaign or he would face almost certain defeat. He succeeded. Now, the race is a Toss-Up and the status quo campaign probably benefits the challenger.

Washington Post (Oct. 3-5)

Kerry 47 (45)
Bush 49 (51)

This is only the third day they've released this poll. It appears that Kerry's post-debate bounce, much as in the Rasmussen poll, took a few days to register, but now is clearly resulting in a closer race.

As a sidenote, Kerry appeared on Dr. Phil today. We'll be looking to see if there's some sort of "Dr. Phil bounce" among women, just women, over the next few days, not to be confused with the inevitible "John Edwards is pretty bounce" Kerry is sure to receive from women who watched the debate last night (or is it the "Dick Cheney scares the shit out of me anti-bounce?")


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