Florida

So how is Florida looking, you ask? Well, the daily tracking polls have some mixed news. Rasmussen today has Bush up 50-47 after being tied for several days. Zogby has Bush up only 1, 48-47, Kerry's best showing in 3 days. John Zogby elaborates:

Mr. Bush continues to lead Mr. Kerry in the battleground state of Florida, but his lead is now tenuous. The two candidates are now tied among women, each bringing in 48% of the vote. Mr. Bush is viewed favorably by 55% of Floridians and unfavorably by 45%, a one-point up-tick on each number. Mr. Kerry is viewed favorably by 50% and unfavorably by 48%.

Mr. Bush gets a 49% job approval rating, but 51% disapprove—a two-point positive swing. Mr. Bush is favored for re-election by 47% of Floridians, but 50% say it is time for someone new—a slide away from the President. On U.S. direction, 45% of Floridians say the U.S. is moving in the right direction, while 46% say it is on the wrong track.

The Ledger of Lakeland, FL, reports that a poll conducted by New York Times Regional Newspapers shows Kerry with a slight lead of 48.3 to 46.7. Some of that poll's findings:

Kerry is winning the battle among independent voters, claiming 48 percent of the vote to the president's 40 percent. Kerry also has a lead over Bush in the critical Interstate 4 corridor, with 50.5 percent of the vote to 45 percent. Kerry is also running surprisingly strongly among male voters, with each candidate taking 47 percent of the male vote. Among women, Kerry has a 49 percent to 46 percent lead, within the poll's margin of error.

Bush is running well among middle-age voters, with 52 percent of the voters between the ages of 34 and 49 to Kerry's 42 percent. Kerry had the edge among senior voters, another key constituency in Florida politics. He led among voters over the age of 65 by a 51 percent to 45 percent margin.Bush is leading among Hispanic voters, with 51 percent of the vote to Kerry's 43 percent.

A Quinnipiac University poll gives Bush a 3 point lead in Florida, but finds that of the 16% of Florida voters who cast their ballots early, Kerry leads Bush 56-39 percent.