Wednesday, October 20, 2004


As we've noted before, for Kerry to win, he's going to have to pick up at least one big state that Gore lost in 2000. If Kerry simply wins what Gore won, he'll lose 278 to 260 electoral votes. The only states that are currently up for grabs that would confer those 10 extra votes needed to push Kerry over the top are Florida (with 27 EVs) and Ohio (with 20 EVs.) Bush won Ohio by about 4% in 2000 and Florida by "537 votes" yet it appears that Ohio may be the more likely get for Kerry. 7 out of the last 9 Ohio polls have shown Kerry with a slight lead (a sample is below) and, as a result, most electoral vote counts are putting the state's coveted 20 electoral votes in Kerry's column.

Kerry 47, Bush 47 (Rasmussen)
Bush 49, Kerry 44 (Fox News)
Kerry 49, Bush 47 (Survey USA)
Kerry 50, Bush 47 (ABC News)
Kerry 48, Bush 46 (Ohio Poll)

But it is interesting to note that Bush hasn't been to Ohio in 17 days while John Kerry seems to always be there -- twice this week alone. And clearly, their strategy to regain the lead in Ohio is underway. The Vice President took a bus tour through southern Ohio yesterday and continued to scare the shit out of people:
The biggest threat we face now as a nation is the possibility of terrorists' ending up in the middle of one of our cities with deadlier weapons than have ever before been used against us - biological agents or a nuclear weapon or a chemical weapon of some kind - to be able to threaten the lives of hundreds of thousands of Americans.
Also, the Bush twins are in Cincinnati today and George is expected to visit Canton, OH on Friday, and Arnold Schwarzenegger is due for an appearance with the President in Columbus, OH (apparently a "second home" to the Governor, who knew?) the final weekend before Election Day. We'll keep you posted as to any and all Ohio developments, for it's looking more and more likely that it will be the determining state this year.


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