Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Fletcher Christian Reports...

This is 4 p.m. analysis by GOP pollster Frank Luntz, according to exit polls. Luntz thinks Kerry is going to win. [Luntz did a 4 PM conference call with some business CEOs]

Turnout overall has been as much about economic security as about national security vote. Kerry is winning economic voters 4 to 1. (Bush wins on national security vote.) Kerry could be headed to 310 or 320 electoral vote. But if Bush carries Fla. or Ohio, Bush can still win. (Networks aren't likely to make a call early because of tight races in Fla. and Ohio.)

But ...

Fla & Ohio: Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry
Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4

When all is said and done: "Kerry's people must be feeling very confident." Election not over. But based on initial data, Luntz's educated judgment is that Kerry is headed to victory. Unless something happens with late voting. Right now, Kerry is doing about 2 points better in states where expected to be closer. Looks like economy security more important than Bush knew.

Senate: Looks like GOP picks up 3. Dems pick up 1, for net up 2 for GOP Thune over Daschle by 4 points. Likely enough to sustain Indian reservations numbers coming in later for Daschle. GOP picking up N.C. and S.C. Bunning in Ky. Oklahoma goes GOP (Coburn) Plus 3 for GOP. Castor in
Fla. is looking good. Salazar up in Colo.


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