Monday, November 01, 2004

State of The Race - 1 Day Out

While I share Dave's optimism about Kerry's carrying Ohio AND Florida, I do want to point out that Kerry can win without Florida. If Kerry holds Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and gains New Hampshire and Ohio, even if he loses Florida, Iowa and New Mexico, he wins with 272-266. This is actually quite a conservative estimate. Dave reported earlier today that Kerry is actually diverting attention away from Ohio to focus on Florida because he feels so confident in Ohio. That had better be true because, while Florida is winnable, I'd hate to have to depend on it, considering the voter suppression efforts there as well as the fact that the governor is the president's brother.

If Bush wins Iowa and Wisconsin as well as either Florida OR Ohio, Kerry is in trouble. If Bush wins Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico and Kerry wins Florida and New Hampshire, the vote is tied at 269-269, which would then go to the Congress, which would likely vote for Bush. In this case, Kerry would need Nevada to push him over the top. If Bush wins Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa and Kerry wins Ohio and New Hampshire, then Kerry would need New Mexico AND Nevada to win. If Bush wins both Ohio and Florida, it's over, Bush landslide, nightmare scenario.

Some people see a Kerry landslide. A prominent poster at dailyKos sees Kerry by more than 311 and Slate currently sees the race as Kerry's 299-239 with the following commentary:

Florida moves to Kerry, giving him 299 electoral votes. But his lead is shakier than it looks. Both Florida and Ohio are on a knife's edge. We also think Gallup has exposed Wisconsin as a Tier 2 state, winnable for Bush with the right turnout. Kerry's consolation is that both Iowa and New Mexico now look winnable for him, and as a package, they would negate the loss of Wisconsin or Minnesota. Kerry can now afford to lose any of the following combinations: 1) Florida, Iowa, and New Mexico; 2) Florida, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire; 3) Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire; 4) Ohio and Pennsylvania; or 5) Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. The good news for Republicans is that even if Kerry wins all the other states within his reach, he can't survive the loss of Ohio and Florida.

In addition, has it as Kerry 287-251. Right now, I'll be conservative and go with the 272-266 Kerry win scenario. We'll update over the course of the next 24 hours.


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