Monday, August 23, 2004

Swing State Polling Update

Imagine my surprise when FoxNews's The Beltway Boys featured this rundown of state polling:

Pennsylvania
Keystone Poll, Aug. 2-15

Kerry 48
Bush 42

Ohio
University of Cincinnati Poll, Aug. 15-18

Kerry 48
Bush 46

New Mexico
American Research Group, Aug. 17-19

Kerry 49
Bush 42

Michigan
American Research Group, Aug. 17-19

Kerry 49
Bush 46

It was then extra satisfying to see that these results have pushed Kerry's electoral college lead, according to FoxNews's own calculations, to 327-211. But even more satisfying than that? This exchange between moderate (at best) Mort Kondracke and conservative (to say the least) Fred Barnes:
Mort: [The gap] is getting wider.

Fred:
Mmmm, hmm, yeah, gee, indeed it is.


Also, the latest Zogby Interactive Battleground States Poll was released today. Out of the 16 states polled, Kerry is ahead in 14; of those, Kerry's lead is 5 or more in 8 (3 of which are outside the margin of error: Oregon, Pennsylvania and Washington; 5 of which are not: Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota and New Mexico); Kerry leads by less than 1 point in 2 (Florida and Missouri); Kerry has expanded his lead from the last poll in 8 states (Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington & Wisconsin) and switched two states from Bush to Kerry (Arkansas and Nevada.)

Since Zogby polled late last week during what would presumably be the height of the Swift Bboat Liars' influence, this would seem to indicate no Swift Boat bounce for Bush, although it still may be too early to tell.

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