50 State Polling

American Research Group draws an intriguing conclusion from their polling of all 50 states, as follows:

• George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
• Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
• Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
• Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
• Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
• Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.
• Bush needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio.
• Kerry needs to defend small leads in 5 states - Maine, Florida, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
• Among men nationwide, 51% say they would vote for Bush and 42% say they would vote for Kerry.
• Among women nationwide, 42% say they would vote for Bush and 50% say they would vote for Kerry.

270 electoral votes wins it so if ARG is correct, John Kerry is currently leading with less of the popular vote but more of the electoral votes, just as Bush won in 2000. Wouldn't payback be sweet.