Wednesday, September 22, 2004

A Look Back At 2000 - Part 3


Part 1

Part 2

The first presidential debate of the 2000 race was held on October 3 and, despite the fact that Gore was widely considered the winner (by an average of 9%), his behavior at the debate coupled with media coverage that labeled him an exaggerator denied Gore a bounce. The race was a statistical dead heat leading up to the second debate on October 11. This time, Bush was the clear winner (by an average of 9%) and did receive a bounce. Bush was leading by an average of 4% leading up to the third debate on October 17, of which there was no clear winner (people favored Gore slightly).

Throughout the rest of October, Bush held an average lead of 3.5%. Leading up to the weekend before election day, Bush was still up by an average of 2% and then came the November surprise: the report of Bush’s DUI. A CBS Poll released on election day, 11/7, had Gore up by 1%, 45-44 (a net gain of 3% from their previous poll on 11/3). Similarly, Gallup’s daily tracking poll showed a net gain of 4% for Gore between 11/3 and 11/7, even though their final poll still had Bush up by 2%, 48-46. And the Zogby/Reuters/MSNBC daily tracking poll had Gore leaping from down 3% on 11/3 to up 2% on 11/7, 48-46.

The final (and ultimately irrelevant) popular vote total was Gore 48.4, Bush 47.9.


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