Monday, September 20, 2004

A Look Back At 2000 - Part 1

Our very own polling guru kept track of all presidential polls from 2000, so we're taking a look back.

See the Intro HERE.

Part One:

Since neither Gore nor Bush was an incumbent, they each had to fight for his party's nomination. Gore had a relatively easy time of it, dispatching Bill Bradley swiftly in Iowa and New Hampshire, but Bush's fight was a bit harder. He was essentially the presumptive nominee since he had the backing of the party apparatus, but John McCain waged a strong fight, winning the New Hampshire primary and coming close in South Carolina. As a result, Bush emerged from the primaries a bit weathered and worn and what was a solid lead over Gore in January and February became a tight race in early March. From March 8 to April 8, Bush held an average lead of 1.1%.

Between April and June, however, by taking a page out of Clinton's playbook and coming out with strong stances on traditionally Democratic issues such as education and social security, Bush widened the gap between him and Gore who was busy ineffectually attacking Bush without offering any ideas of his own. From April 11-June 13, Bush led Gore by an average of 4%.

In June of 2000, Gore was plagued by questions about whether he committed campaign finance violations in 1996 when he went to, apparently unknowingly, a fundraiser at a Buddhist temple. This allowed Bush to widen his lead to an average of 8% at the story's peak in the second half of June but Janet Reno's refusal to appoint a special prosecutor cooled the story off, allowing Gore to regain some ground. From July 1-July 25, Bush held a modest 2.5 % lead.

Look for Part Two tomorrow.


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