Thursday, October 21, 2004

An Embarrassment of Polling Riches

Slate has a great Electoral College map that they seem to be updating every day, made all the better by their 3rd straight day of a predicted Kerry win, 276-262. Here's what they say:

No change in the electoral vote count yet, but underlying currents are moving to Kerry. Latest polls suggest that a Florida shift to Kerry is more plausible than an Ohio shift to Bush, and a Kerry upset in West Virginia is more plausible than a Bush upset in New Jersey. The quantitative basis for ceding West Virginia to Bush is thin, and online and Democratic polls are making it thinner. We await the first neutral phone poll of October. has a Kerry win projected as well, and they actually have Florida for Kerry and Ohio for Bush (they count the FoxNews poll out of Ohio with Bush up by 4 as most recent and therefore most important, even though it's a clear outlier.)

There was talk over the last few days of the national Bush surge taking hold at the state level, but instead, what we're seeing, is Kerry's state by state strength being seen in new national polls.

Among the daily tracking polls, while Zogby and Rasmussen have no change (tied and Bush up 1 respectively), Washington Post and ABC News both show a return to Bush up 3 after yesterday's polls in which Bush was up 5 (with Kerry gaining 1 and Bush losing 1) and TIPP shows a 4 point Bush lead on Monday down to a 1 point Bush lead today.

In addition, check out the latest national polls:

The Economist/You Gov - Oct. 18-20 (Oct. 10-12)

Kerry 48 (47)
Bush 46 (46)

Pew Center For Research - Oct. 15-19 (Oct. 1-3)

Kerry 47 (44)
Bush 47 (49)

Democracy Corps - Oct. 17-18 (Oct. 14-16)

Kerry 50 (50)
Bush 47 (47)

NBC/Wall St. Journal - Oct. 16-18 (Sept. 26-28)

Kerry 46 (45)
Bush 48 (48)

Harris Interactive - Oct. 14-17 (Sept. 20-26)

Kerry 46 (46)
Bush 48 (48)


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