Friday, October 08, 2004

New Time Poll Internals

Time's new poll, out today, has the race tied 45-45. The fact that it's a tie nationally is as surprising as it is relevant -- not terribly, but what's really interesting about this poll is some of the underlying trends that they find post-debate, specifically as regards Kerry's likability and his support among women:
On being "likeable," a key strength for Bush in 2000, Bush now trails Kerry, 70% - 65%. (Bush had a slight 4 point lead on likeability before the debate.) Bush still leads Kerry by a wide margin, 81% - 42% on "sticking to his positions."

Just before the first debate last week, Bush was up by 6 points among likely voters in the TIME Poll. Kerry's win last Thursday (59%-23%) not only tied the race, but 30% of voters said that they were more likely to vote for Kerry because of the debate. This compares to only 14% more likely to vote for Bush.

A key reason for Kerry's resurgence was that he recaptured a large lead among female voters. Females now support Kerry over Bush by 12 points, 50%-38%. Pre-debate, the TIME Poll found women split evenly, 44% Kerry, 43% Bush. By contrast, in early August, Kerry led among women by 14 points. Bush is now up 16 points among males, 51% Bush, 35% Kerry.


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