Thursday, September 23, 2004

A Look Back At 2000 - Part 4


Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

So what can we learn from this? Keeping in mind the extent to which the electorate may be more polarized this year (and thus, the numbers may be less fluid):

1. Plenty of time for a major shift

In mid-September, Gore led from anywhere from 6% (Pew on 8/14) to 16% (Newsweek on 9/16) and ultimately won by less than 1%.

2. Debates matter

Prior to the first debate. NY Times/CBS News had Gore up 4%. After the final debate, Bush was up 2%. Prior to the first debate, Newsweek had Bush up 1%, after the final debate, Bush was up 7%. Prior to the first debate, Gallup had Gore up by 2%, after the final debate, Bush was up by 6%.

3. Gallup skews Republican

USA Today/Gallup began their daily tracking poll on September 4, 2000. How did their numbers compare with the averages of other polls for the same periods?

Throughout the entire course of the daily Gallup poll in 2000, they consistently gave Bush an edge, one that increased as the election neared. From Oct. 12-Oct. 31, the Bush benefit was 1.5%. From Nov. 1-Nov. 3, it was 3.0%. From Nov. 4-Nov. 7, it was 2.6% and on election day, Nov. 7, 2000, it was back to a solid 3.0% (they had Bush up by 2% while other polls had Gore up by 1%.)

This would help explain the latest Gallup poll that shows Bush up by 13 points.


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