Electoral College Scenarios

The following are some electoral vote scenarios, all assuming the now likely retention of Pennsylvania for Kerry and pick-ups of Ohio and New Hampshire for Kerry. They range from ideal to nightmare. Remember, 270 are needed to win. If Kerry wins Florida, Ohio AND Pennsylvania, it's Kerry in a landslide, a scenario that actually could happen and we'll represent with only the first below. Play along HERE.

Kerry landslide (Everything has to go right, not very likely):

Bush picks up 0 states from 2000
Kerry picks up Florida (27), Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 311
Bush 227

Great (Somewhat Likely):

Bush picks up 0 states from 2000
Kerry picks up Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 284
Bush 254

Too Close For Comfort (Likely):

Bush picks up Iowa (7)
Kerry picks up Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 277
Bush 261

Bush picks up Wisconsin (10)
Kerry picks up Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 274
Bush 264

Ditto except Bush also picks up 1 of Maine's electoral votes:

Kerry 273
Bush 265

Bush picks up Iowa (7) and New Mexico (4)
Kerry picks up Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 272
Bush 266

Ditto except Bush also picks up 1 of Maine's electoral votes

Kerry 271
Bush 266

Nightmare Scenarios (Could happen)

Bush picks up Wisconsin (10) and New Mexico (5)
Kerry picks up Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 269
Bush 269

Yes, a tie is possible. In this case, as I understand it, the vote will go to the House of Representatives, with each state getting 1 vote; the vote for a given state is determined by the majority opinion of that state's congressional delegation, which could lead to some intersting votes. For example, the red state of South Dakota only gets 1 Representative and after Bill Janklow ran someone down and went to jail for it, a special election resulted in Democrat Stephanie Herseth taking the seat. Would she vote with her state, which no doubt would go for Bush, or her party? These are the intriguing questions that would be raised by a tie. Conventional wisdom is, however, even if the Democrats make gains in the House on November 2, that a tie means a win for Bush.

Bush picks up Iowa (7) and Wisconsin (10)
Kerry picks up Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 267
Bush 271

Bush picks up Iowa (7), Wisconsin (10) and New Mexico (5)
Kerry picks up Ohio (20) and New Hampshire (4)

Kerry 262
Bush 276

Bush landslide...let's not go there