Friday, October 22, 2004

Random Thoughts At Midnight

Chris Matthews sucks. His panel is stacked with conservatives, Ron Silver, "actor/activist" whose answer to everything is "9/11" and Ed Rollins, Republican strategist; then there's Ron Reagan who seems like a Democrat most of the time but thinks he needs to be evenhanded since he's on MSNBC's payroll and Andrea Mitchell, who is married to Alan Greenspan and appears to have drunk the Kool-Aid on certain issues, but again, is afflicted with this need to be evenhanded, something the two Republicans on the panel clearly do not struggle with. I prefer Fox News to this bullshit, at least they have Juan Willaims representing. And Chris Matthews was arguing with David Boies about the 2000 election decision by the Supreme Court. David Boies was Gore's guy in that fight, I think he knows it a bit better than you, Chris, it was a 5-4 decision, not 7-2 and of course it was partisan. This and the fact that Yahoo News is still reporting the AP poll with Kerry up by 3 as "Kerry and Bush Are Tied" are what we're up against. Pathetic.

So I recently posted about Ohio being the most important state and that it appears to be going to Kerry. Well, I've now heard an argument for the idea that actually Bush/Cheney have given up on Ohio, conceding it essentially to Kerry, and are focusing on Iowa and Wisconsin. If Bush wins Florida, Wisonsin AND Iowa and Kerry wins Pennsylvania and Ohio, Bush wins by the same electoral margin he won in 2000: 271-267. Kerry needs not only Ohio, but also 1 of these two states, Iowa or Wisconsin. Gore barely carried them in 2000, and there's increasing reason for Kerry to be worried. Despite word on the ground that these states are trending Kerry's way, two new polls today have Bush up in Iowa by 6 points, one a Survey USA poll and one a Mason Dixon poll. There's an argument for why these polls may be bullshit but that may just be wishful thinking. Keep an eye out for these states.

I'm heading to Las Vegas again this weekend to get the vote out for Kerry there. Early voting is happeneing there right now and word is that the vast majority of early voters in Nevada are Democrats. I anticipate that's what we'll be focusing on when there. Right now the state is polling for Bush, but this is all about the ground game. The Democrats are extremely organized and have a clear strategy in Nevada. I doubt Nevada will be decisive but it will be a true triumph if we can turn it blue.


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