Monday, October 11, 2004

A Little Bit About The WaPo Daily Poll

As you can see below, Kerry is down one more in the daily Washington Post poll, making it a 51-45 Bush lead. It is worth noting that this is among likely voters; Kerry and Bush are actually tied among registered voters (47-47).

Taking a closer look, on 10/4, the numbers looked like this:
Likely Voters

Kerry 45
Bush 51

Registered Voters

Kerry 44
Bush 50

So The Washington Post would ask us to believe that 1 week later, LV numbers are the same, while RV numbers have shifted 6 points in Kerry's favor? At the very least this is an aberration that should lead us to question the 51-45 number.

Another fact that should lead us to take the WaPo poll with a grain of salt is their 2000 results. Their tracking poll 4 years ago, which only began on Oct. 17, never had Gore in the lead and showed Bush up by 3 points on election day.

We should all adjust expectations accordingly.


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