Poll Trends

We here at WDR have declared a war on polls. We know it's a metaphorical war, like the war on poverty or drugs, or...well, you know, but I had to note an interesting trend. Because say what you want about polls, if several are saying the same thing (especially if it benefits your guy), it's worth taking notice. Check out these numbers from some of the daily tracking polls, thanks to Kos (first column is Bush, second column is Kerry):

Washington Post - Registered Voters

10/24/04 46 48
10/23/04 49 46
10/22/04 50 45

Washington Post - Likely Voters

10/24/04 48 49
10/23/04 49 48
10/22/04 50 46

Rasmussen - Likely Voters

10/24/04 46.4 48.4
10/23/04 47.6 47.2
10/22/04 48.0 46.7

Zogby - Likely Voters

10/24/04 48 45
10/23/04 48 46
10/22/04 47 45

Looking at these numbers, we see that Zogby is the exception, with a marginal trend for Bush, but really just a maintaining of a Bush lead. In addition, Zogby also released new daily tracking state polls and they benefit Bush as well:

Colorado, Kerry 48 Bush 47

Florida, Bush 48 Kerry 47

Iowa, Bush 47 Kerry 44

Michigan, Kerry 52 Bush 43

Minnesota, Kerry 48 Bush 43

New Mexico, Bush 50 Kerry 42

Nevada, Bush 50 Kerry 44

Ohio, Bush 46 Kerry 45

Pennsylvania, Kerry 48 Bush 45

Wisconsin, Bush 48 Kerry 46

As bad as they seem, they're actually better than yesterday's numbers. Look for the Zogby state numbers to continue to improve for Kerry as they begin to reflect the trend toward Kerry seen in the other national polls. He could be peaking just in time.