The Supposed Non-Bounce Continues

In two crucial swing states, New Hampshire and Florida, new post-convention American Research Group polls have Kerry moving up and Bush and Nader dropping (mid-July numbers in parenthses):

Florida:

Bush- 43% (44%)
Kerry- 50% (47%)
Nader- 2% (3%)
undecided- 5% (6%)

New Hampshire:

Bush- 42% (45%)
Kerry- 49% (47%)
Nader- 2% (3%)
Undecided- 7% (5%)

The Florida numbers are particularly enticing, especially taking into consideration that ARG is a right wing polling firm. But I keep reminding myself that this all can go back to a dead heat after the Republican convention.